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Expected Value Calculator
Quick answer
If win probability is 40%, win payoff is 500 and loss payoff is −100, the expected value is 140.
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Expected Value
140
The long-run average outcome you'd expect if this were repeated many times, weighted by how likely each result is.
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See how the result changes
Each table re-runs this calculator with one value changed and everything else left as it is.
Expected Value by win probability
If win probability goes from 40% to 60%, expected value changes from 140 to 260 (+86%).
| Win probability | Expected Value |
|---|---|
| 20% | 20 |
| 30% | 80 |
| 40%start | 140 |
| 60% | 260 |
| 80% | 380 |
Expected Value by win payoff
If win payoff goes from 500 to 750, expected value changes from 140 to 240 (+71%).
| Win payoff | Expected Value |
|---|---|
| 250 | 40 |
| 375 | 90 |
| 500start | 140 |
| 750 | 240 |
| 1,000 | 340 |
STATISTICS & PROBABILITY GUIDE
A quick guide to Expected Value
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How to Use the Expected Value Calculator
1
Enter Win probability
Provide your win probability, in %.
2
Enter Win payoff
Provide your win payoff.
3
Enter Loss payoff
Provide your loss payoff.
4
View Your Results
Get your expected value instantly, calculated on our server.
What is Expected Value?
This statistics & probability tool works out your expected value instantly, so you don't have to do the math by hand.
“One quick calculation, so you always know your expected value before you decide.”
What Affects Your Expected Value
Your expected value depends on the values below.
Win probability
Changing your win probability changes your expected value. Typically between 0 and 100 %.
Win payoff
Changing your win payoff changes your expected value.
Loss payoff
Changing your loss payoff changes your expected value.
Example Result
Here's what you can expect from an expected value calculation:
- Win probability
- 40 %
- Win payoff
- 500
- Loss payoff
- -100
- Expected Value
- 140
Frequently Asked Questions
- How does win probability affect expected value?
- If win probability goes from 40% to 60%, expected value changes from 140 to 260 (+86%).
- How does win payoff affect expected value?
- If win payoff goes from 500 to 750, expected value changes from 140 to 240 (+71%).
- How to calculate expected value?
- Fill in win probability, win payoff and loss payoff in the Expected Value Calculator above and your expected value is calculated instantly. Change any value to see how the result responds.
- What does an example expected value calculation look like?
- If win probability is 40%, win payoff is 500 and loss payoff is −100, the expected value is 140.
- Is this calculator free to use?
- Yes — every calculator on this site is completely free, with no sign-up or account required.
- How accurate is this calculator?
- It uses the standard formula and calculates on our server for every request, so results are precise for the values you enter.
- Is my data saved anywhere?
- No. Nothing you enter is stored or sent anywhere unless you choose to share a link with your values included.
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